Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment, often caused by psychological phenomena like the Dunning-Kruger effect, overconfidence bias, hindsight bias, sunk cost fallacy and base rate neglect.
This study employed a slot machine simulation to elicit two common cognitive distortions, near-miss and illusion of control. Participants verbalized their automatic thoughts during this experience and its content was analysed.
Overconfidence
Cognitive biases that influence slot machine decision-making include overconfidence and the illusion of control; both can have detrimental impacts on decision-making processes and understanding them is integral for preventing problem gambling.
These biases arise due to noisy deviations in information processing, when people make judgements using information which deviates from Bayesian belief systems and can lead to issues like regressive conservatism, overconfidence, illusory correlations, flexible attributions and selective recall.
Researchers conducted research into these phenomena by analyzing the automatic thoughts of non-gambling healthy adults while they participated in a slot machine simulation, then used a structured coding matrix to detect any cognitive distortions present. Results demonstrated that overconfidence is one of the most prevalent cognitive distortions; it often affects decision-making by overestimating likelihood of success while underestimating probability of failure, leading individuals to selectively remember positive outcomes while neglecting or forgetting negative ones.
Perceived control
Cognitive biases can wreak havoc with slot machine decision-making at different stages: perception, memory retrieval, integration of information and judgement making. Unfortunately, neuroscience does not yet allow direct identification of mechanistic distortions within cognitive representations (though progress is being made; [5]), thus inference from behavior must be used to detect cognitive biases.
Studies indicate that having a sense of control can positively impact gambling behavior. Perceived control has been found to possess affective, motivational and protective attributes; its affective component targets ventral striatum recruitment while motivational aspects depend on dopaminergic transmission.
Griffiths et al. (2009) conducted an ecologically valid experiment to study how perceived control affects overt gambling behavior among regular non-problem gamblers. To do so, they utilized verbalizations of regular gamblers using the “Thinking Aloud” technique versus non-regular gamblers and found that regulars played faster, making eight gambles per minute instead of six per minute, as well as appraising near misses as evidence of mastery indicating they viewed their behavior as within their control.
Illusion of control
The illusion of control is a cognitive bias in which individuals overestimate the relationship between their actions and task outcomes, such as gambling outcomes. This cognitive error has been linked with numerous psychological conditions including superstitious beliefs and magical thinking; similarly, in gambling this misperception may lead to financial losses as well as persistent gambling behavior.
Associative learning theories assert that the illusion of control results from our brain’s natural tendency to associate causes and effects. Under certain conditions, this misperception may occur; such as when potential causes are presented in such a way that suggests causality (e.g. when participants judge they ‘got lucky’ because their decisions were made based on famous names of soccer players).
SGMs do not tend to promote increased betting intensity overall; however, they can attract vulnerable groups and create illusions of control that require careful regulation. Further study must explore these perceptions and their long-term effects on gambling behavior and harm.
Omnipotence
Omnipotence is a characteristic of Western conceptions of God that often goes unexamined in debates on religious omnipotence. Yet those advocating it often fail to provide clarity as to what exactly this term refers to; some claim an all-powerful being can bring about any state of affairs; however, such reasoning assumes an agent would possess enough power to draw a square round shape (which obviously cannot exist!), showing more granular analysis is needed of omnipotence.
Act and result theories provide more precise approaches to understanding omnipotence, defining it through its results; often called possible worlds or complete ways that the universe could exist.
To test these ideas, participants in a gambling experiment were instructed to play game slots while recording their thoughts as they went along. These recordings were then analysed for any evidence of cognitive distortions; following extensive examination, researchers identified eight cognitive distortions among them: Overinterpretation of cues; Illusory correlations; Flexible Attributions; Selective Recall and Superstitious Beliefs and Rituals.
